The Promised Abstract

Prospero Theory: Behavioral Economics and Shakespeare

Jim Leitzel 

Abstract: Prospect theory, a mainstay model of behavioral economics, was designed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) to offer a better descriptive account of human decision making than that provided by rational choice theory – and in many instances, it seems to deliver on its originators’ goal. Descriptions of plausible human behavior, then, should generally accord well with the features of prospect theory. The writings of William Shakespeare – an acclaimed observer of humanity – provide a classic data set of human behavior that can be tested for its adherence to prospect theory. This paper explores Shakespeare’s works, finding that the main elements of prospect theory – reference point dependence, loss aversion, and asymmetric gain/loss risk preferences – are well represented within the Shakespeare canon. Hamlet may be a rational actor (Leitzel 2023), but Shakespeare’s characters embrace prospect-theory-consistent behavior again and again.

One and one-half months for a paper on Shakespeare and Behavioral Economics!

Five Drafts is back! 

OK, there was that paper from three years ago about Nudging Drug Use. I did indeed produce an almost complete(?) version for an October, 2022 conference, but then did nothing more -- until the past month. Here's the ssrn.com version (posted yesterday, so still preliminary) of Nudging Drug Use! The recent surge of activity on the paper is related to my Winter 2025 revival, after a 15 year or so interregnum, of my Regulation of Vice course. The next step is to send Nudging Drug Use off to a journal. Let me suggest a tight deadline for that, say, June 16, 2025 -- Bloomsday!

While I am updating the situation with previous Five Drafts endevours, let me mention that the published version of the Parthenon Marbles paper, retitled "Athens or London? The Parthenon Marbles and economic efficiency," is available (open access) here.

But the recalling to life of Five Drafts has nothing to do with this previous, unfinished business. No, Five Drafts is back because I want to write a paper in the next 1.5 months or so. The paper is about Shakespeare and Behavioral Economics -- a topic I have been blogging about on and off over the years. The idea is to build my Shakespeare collection, which in terms of publications (but not of mulling) is miniscule: here's the one (open access -- do you sense a pattern?)! I'll post a schedule, maybe for an Abstract and three drafts, on the sidebar. For the Abstract (which will no doubt be widly incompatible with the contents of the finished version of the paper), I'll go with tomorrow: June 15, 2025.

Excited to be back drafting!