Update on Draft 2.6

Well, I had hoped that today would bring an update on Draft 3.1, but that was not to be. Thank you very much for the extension, however.

Last week's talk was related to the Five Drafts project, and while I think it went OK, the larger project was not much advanced, I am afraid. My goal of posting Draft Three is now reconfigured for this week, while the draft itself is reconfigured by reversing the previous order of licensing-to-exclusion, and by separating mandatory and voluntary exclusion regulations. Then there is the seemingly never-ending project of reading three project-related books,

(1) The Saloon Problem and Social Reform, by John Marshall Barker, 1905;

(2) Last Call, by Daniel Okrent, 2010; and,

(3) All or Nothing, by Jessica Warner, 2008.

Here's where things now stand, in terms of pages read: Barker, 64 out of 212, unchanged for two weeks now (hmmm); Okrent, 46 out of 469 (up from 30), with the skip-ahead portion extended by six pages to pages 310 to 386; Warner, which I had hoped to complete already, is now at 166 out of 230, up from 122 last week. The main text, however, finishes at page 168, with the rest consisting of notes, which I have been almost keeping up with as I go along. So I am about 15 minutes of reading away, I think, from completing Warner!

The Warner book has lots of wonderful information about, among other luminaries, Frances Willard and Sylvester Graham. I now want to visit the Willard house/museum in Evanston.

I am disappointed in the conclusion of the Warner book (from pages 156-157), that, roughly speaking, is that drug problems are no better met with regulations than with prohibition. Perhaps it is true that addiction rates can end up being similar under these two scenarios, but I find the other dimensions of social harm, such as the violent black markets, to be markedly worse under prohibition than they are in a reasonable regulatory regime.

Two more books have left the library to join the Five Drafts queue. They are:

(4) Addiction: A Disorder of Choice, by Gene M. Heyman, 2009; and,

(5) Carrots and Sticks, by Ian Ayres, 2010. Soon I hope to chronicle my unprogress through these books, too.

Extension Request

Dear Five Drafts Reader,

Would it be possible to receive a one-week extension for Draft Three? I know that I should have made my request earlier, but I have been out of town and allowed things to pile up. As you know, I am hoping to incorporate some major structural changes into Draft Three, and while I could hand in something now, I don't think it would reflect my best work. Just one extra week, until Wednesday, May 4, 2011, would make a big difference in the quality of the draft. I am excited about the project, and would feel a lot better if Draft Three could better reflect my excitement and my commitment.

Thank you for your consideration of my request.

Sincerely,

JL

Update on Draft 2.5

The fact that this update is three days behind the usual Sunday schedule is indicative of the state of things. But the main goal for last week was to survive my talk on Sunday, and I did -- audience casualty figures are not yet available. In the preparation for the talk, I found that progressing with respect to policy strictness in three stages -- when describing drug regulatory regimes -- seems to work pretty well. Start with the alcohol regulatory model, then add exclusion options (mandatory and voluntary), and then add buyer licensing. My old order of first introducing licensing and then exclusion always made exclusion seem like an afterthought.

The unrelated tasks of tax filing and sending in a book review (the book concerns the Russian economy, not vice policy) also were completed, minutes before the respective deadlines. Gave an unrelated (to the Five Drafts project) talk on law and economics, which went OK. As for progress in reading the three vice-related books, well, not much to say. The books remain...

(1) The Saloon Problem and Social Reform, by John Marshall Barker, 1905;

(2) Last Call, by Daniel Okrent, 2010; and,

(3) All or Nothing, by Jessica Warner, 2008.

Here's where things now stand, in terms of pages read: Barker, 64 out of 212, unchanged from last week; Okrent, 30 out of 469 (up from 26) but I finished the skip-ahead portion and a bit more, so pages 310 to 380 are completed; Warner, 122 out of 230, up from 106 last week. I intend to finish Warner this week!

Next Wednesday is the due date for Draft Three, which right now looks a lot like Draft Two. I am also scheduled to give a related out-of-town talk next Wednesday, so that worries me, as it will cut into my time for revising the draft. Nevertheless, this week's main goal is to push along the revising/writing of Draft Three.

Incidentally, I recognize that these rambling lack-of-progress reports are deadly dull to others, and even to me. This blog is a commitment device for me of sorts, however, and it is serving (imperfectly) that modest function.

Update on Draft 2.4

For this past week I was intending to update the SSRN version of Self-Exclusion, and to submit it to a journal; both tasks were accomplished, amazingly. I also was supposed to prepare and survive this week's talk (number two of four), and I did; the most taxing one is next week, though. (The audience for this past week's talk might disagree with my relative taxation claim.) The other, ongoing tasks were to make progress on reading three books:

(1) The Saloon Problem and Social Reform, by John Marshall Barker, 1905;

(2) Last Call, by Daniel Okrent, 2010; and,

(3) All or Nothing, by Jessica Warner, 2008.

Here's where things stand, in terms of pages read: Barker, 64 out of 212, up (barely) from 58 last week; Okrent, 26 out of 469 again, though in the skip-ahead section, I'm at page 340, intending to go to page 371; this is up (barely) from page 328 last week. I did better with Warner, where I have read the first 106 of 230 pages (up from 12 pages completed as of last week). So these three books will be mentioned on a few more Five Drafts posts.

For the coming week, my chief goal is to put together and rehearse a decent talk -- the real one (number three of four) is slated for April 17. If I make progress on reading the books, so much the better. I have two nagging tasks, unrelated to this blog: one involves writing a book review and the other is to prepare my taxes. So maybe I am a good judge of relative taxation?

Update on Draft 2.3

My minimal plan for progress towards Draft Three is moving ahead at the more-or-less expected glacial pace. The good news is that I did indeed enter the edits to Self-Exclusion and to Draft Two. I did not submit Self-Exclusion to a journal, however, nor update the ssrn version. These are tasks for the forthcoming week, then.

The assiduous Five Drafts reader will recall that I hope to finish reading three books relevant to the Five Drafts project by April 20, and have committed to providing page numbers of the material already completed as a way of assessing progress. The books are:

(1) The Saloon Problem and Social Reform, by John Marshall Barker, 1905;

(2) Last Call, by Daniel Okrent, 2010; and,

(3) All or Nothing, by Jessica Warner, 2008.

Here's where things stand: Barker, 58 out of 212, up from 47 last week; Okrent, 26 out of 469, up from 14 last week; and Warner, 12 out of 230 (up from 6). In short, a pathetic performance. In recognition of the lack of progress, I have skipped ahead in Okrent, because the end of alcohol Prohibition is my chief concern. So I have also read pages 313 to 328 of Last Call, with the intention of soon getting to page 371.

The first of my scheduled four talks this month that relate to the Five Drafts project took place yesterday. That went OK, and I hope that the experience will ease this week's talk, scheduled for Friday. So this week's plan is simple. Prepare and survive the talk, re-post and submit Self-Exclusion (as described above), and make progress on the three books sub-project. Serious thinking for evolving Draft Two towards Draft Three remains postponed until April 18 or so.

Update on Draft 2.2

Other commitments over the next month precipitated a pared-down agenda as Draft Two morphs into Draft Three, which is due on April 27.

There are three books relevant for Five Drafts that I hope to read by April 20 or so; I mentioned all three of them before. They are:

(1) The Saloon Problem and Social Reform, by John Marshall Barker, 1905;

(2) Last Call, by Daniel Okrent, 2010; and,

(3) All or Nothing, by Jessica Warner, 2008. I'll just record where things stand on these three books, in terms of the pages I have read and the total pages required:

Barker, 47 out of 212; Okrent, 14 out of 469; and Warner, 6 out of 230. Not a happy picture so far, but a record that leaves lots of room for improvement. If and when I make progress, I hope to memorialize in Five Drafts some of what I learn from these books.

I have prepared hand-written revisions to Self-Exclusion, but have not yet entered them -- I hope to finish that task this week, and as noted, possibly submit the paper for publication or rejection. I have made some brief handwritten edits to Draft Two, too, but again, have not entered them.

Those other commitments that I have so mysteriously alluded to include four public presentations before the end of April: all of these presentations are related to, though not coincident with, the work for this blog. So my hope is that even if those commitments detract from the emergence of Draft Three in the short run, they will complement it in the long(er) run. Tomorrow's start of the Spring quarter at the University of Chicago means that a new class is starting up, one that does not overlap much with the Five Drafts project; the name of the course is "Regulating Speech."

Update on Draft 2.1

Well, after managing to meet, more-or-less, the Draft Two deadline, I took a Bridget Jones-esque mini-break. OK, maybe not so mini. What I was supposed to do in the week that ended last Sunday (two days ago) was to finish reading the Committee of Fifty's book, which I managed to do before the mini-break. I was supposed to make progress on the 1905 book on saloons, which I only accomplished if one employs an expansive view of "progress;" similar progress was made on the Okrent book. (Incidentally, the 1905 book is a pretty over-the-top attack on saloons. One point that the author, John Marshall Barker, tries to establish is that people in the liquor business know that their activities can be banned at any time, so there is no need to worry about compensating them should prohibition be enacted: "That he [a liquor businessperson] may sustain losses when the saloon is suppressed is thoroughly understood by him before he enters the trade, and there is no moral or legal right for society to reimburse him [p. 7].")

The next month looks pretty busy, so I don't expect to do much writing for Draft Three until mid-April. In the meantime, I will try to finish reading the books mentioned above, along with Jessica Warner's book on abstinence. I will also try to revise (and perhaps even submit somewhere for publication) my Self-Exclusion paper. By my standards, this is an ambitious plan.